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Welsh national social care service will not come before next Senedd election, says minister

{ "title": "🔮 Welsh Care Service: Three Paths to 2030", "lede": "The minister’s deferral isn’t just a delay—it’s a stress test of a political system that has repeatedly promised universal care without delivery. The engine finds three distinct futures, with a 60% chance the 2030 pledge holds, a 25% chance of backlash-driven acceleration, and a 15% risk the dream dies forever.", "sections": [ { "kind": "section", "n": "1", "icon": "📊", "title": "Scenario Landscapes", "children": [ { "kind": "card", "letter": "A", "name": "Deferred Reality (Minister’s Line Holds)", "prob": 0.6, "color": "fbbf24", "impact": "BASELINE", "bullets": [ "National care service explicitly off the table before the next Senedd election (by 2030).", "Policy remains a long-term rhetorical pledge; no legislative timetable or budget line appears.", "Driven by extreme fiscal friction (cost factor = 0.900) and moderate political decay (decay = 0.700), with only a weak ethical gradient (0.500) – the government faces little immediate penalty.", "Public exp