Open forecasts
Will the following occur in the 'Retired Army captain's wife found dead in Panchkula; maid under suspicion' narrative by 2026-08-12: Case stalls with inconclusive evidence?
13%σ_eff 0.004judged by 2026-08-12
Resolves: Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-12 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that case stalls with inconclusive evidence — specifically: Neither the maid nor any other person is charged; forensic reports remain inconclusive and the investigation drifts without closure.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #105 · full · 204 agents · issued Aug 4, 2026 · row 2de7663bc7e45fcf…
Will the following occur in the 'Retired Army captain's wife found dead in Panchkula; maid under suspicion' narrative by 2026-08-10: Investigation expands beyond the maid to another perpetrator?
22%σ_eff 0.004judged by 2026-08-10
Resolves: Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-10 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that investigation expands beyond the maid to another perpetrator — specifically: The maid is exonerated or turned into a witness as police uncover a family, property, or personal motive involving another accused.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #104 · full · 204 agents · issued Aug 4, 2026 · row a758dbc709e231a8…
Will the following occur in the 'Retired Army captain's wife found dead in Panchkula; maid under suspicion' narrative by 2026-08-08: Death determined to be natural or accidental?
27%σ_eff 0.004judged by 2026-08-08
Resolves: Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-08 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that death determined to be natural or accidental — specifically: Autopsy and forensic investigation find no foul play; the maid is released and the case is closed as non-criminal.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #103 · full · 204 agents · issued Aug 4, 2026 · row b1d16bd9bd046af8…
Will the following occur in the 'Retired Army captain's wife found dead in Panchkula; maid under suspicion' narrative by 2026-08-07: Maid arrested and charged with murder?
38%σ_eff 0.004judged by 2026-08-07
Resolves: Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-07 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that maid arrested and charged with murder — specifically: Police build a case against the maid using forensic evidence, inconsistent statements, and opportunity, leading to an arrest and chargesheet.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #102 · full · 204 agents · issued Aug 4, 2026 · row 6dd63af37a6b6472…