Open forecasts
Will the following occur in the 'BJP MP files privilege notice against Pappu Yadav over 'sadhu' attire in Parliament' narrative by 2026-08-06: Prolonged Political Standoff?
5%σ_eff 0.006judged by 2026-08-06
Resolves: Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-06 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that prolonged political standoff — specifically: The notice sparks a major political row, leading to repeated adjournments and a deadlock. The matter is never formally resolved, becoming entangled in wider opposition-BJP tensions.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #60 · full · 204 agents · issued Aug 4, 2026 · row b9847983be35db9c…
Will the following occur in the 'BJP MP files privilege notice against Pappu Yadav over 'sadhu' attire in Parliament' narrative by 2026-08-13: Suspension from Parliament?
20%σ_eff 0.006judged by 2026-08-13
Resolves: Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-13 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that suspension from parliament — specifically: The Privileges Committee rules the attire a serious contempt, and the House suspends Pappu Yadav for a substantial period, setting a strong precedent against disruptive dress.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #59 · full · 204 agents · issued Aug 4, 2026 · row 7d14407ce6457265…
Will the following occur in the 'BJP MP files privilege notice against Pappu Yadav over 'sadhu' attire in Parliament' narrative by 2026-08-12: Mild Censure After Committee Review?
35%σ_eff 0.006judged by 2026-08-12
Resolves: Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-12 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that mild censure after committee review — specifically: The Speaker refers the notice to the Privileges Committee, which finds some breach but recommends only a mild censure or an apology. Pappu Yadav receives a formal warning.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #58 · full · 204 agents · issued Aug 4, 2026 · row d7558d4e72e5ae46…
Will the following occur in the 'BJP MP files privilege notice against Pappu Yadav over 'sadhu' attire in Parliament' narrative by 2026-08-11: Privilege Notice Dismissed?
40%σ_eff 0.006judged by 2026-08-11
Resolves: Resolves YES if, by 2026-08-11 (UTC), at least two independent sources of the kind already tracked on this narrative report that privilege notice dismissed — specifically: The Speaker finds no prima facie case and dismisses the notice without referring it to the Privileges Committee. The matter ends quietly with no further action.. Resolves NO if the horizon passes without such reporting. Resolves VOID if the underlying question stops being answerable (for example the event is cancelled or superseded).
ledger #57 · full · 204 agents · issued Aug 4, 2026 · row 2c140a07c388f6ad…